Our NFL Week 4 Betting Card — October 4, 2026

1. Patriots +7 (-115)

New England at Buffalo · 1:00 p.m. ET

Why I like it

I can see New England making this a real game. Buffalo has looked vulnerable at times, and the Patriots need a win badly enough that this feels like a spot where they can rise to it. With seven points, I don’t need New England to win outright.

What could go wrong

The Bills can still blow this open if Josh Allen is on. The concern is New England’s offense: if it can’t put points on the board, the number may not be enough.

2. Giants moneyline (+110)

Arizona at New York · 1:00 p.m. ET

Why I like it

I think the Giants are being undervalued at home. Their last game came in awful weather, and I’m not ready to read too much into that performance. This is a chance for New York to put itself in position to do something this season.

What could go wrong

Arizona has enough passing weapons to make this uncomfortable, and the Giants need Jameis Winston to take care of the ball. This could swing on a few mistakes.

3. Buccaneers +3.5 (-105)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay · 1:00 p.m. ET

Why I like it

I don’t trust Green Bay enough to assume it will win by margin. Tampa can keep this close if the Packers don’t put together a complete game. That gives me a reason to take the points.

What could go wrong

Baker Mayfield is out, and rookie Jalon Daniels is set to make his first NFL start. That is a major unknown, and Green Bay could take advantage if Tampa’s offense stalls.

4. Bengals -2.5 (-115)

Jacksonville at Cincinnati · 1:00 p.m. ET

Why I like it

I like Cincinnati in this buy-low, sell-high spot. The Bengals are at home after a close division loss, while Jacksonville is coming off a huge win. At this short number, I’m willing to back Cincinnati to respond.

What could go wrong

Jacksonville can make plays through the air, and Cincinnati’s defense still has to prove it can hold up. If the Bengals don’t finish drives, laying points gets harder.

5. Dolphins +10.5 (-112)

Miami at Minnesota · 4:05 p.m. ET

Why I like it

I’m taking the points with Miami. Minnesota has not impressed me enough offensively to justify laying this kind of number, and the Dolphins have room to play better. I need them to stay within range, not necessarily win.

What could go wrong

Miami’s offense has also struggled. If Minnesota controls the game and makes the Dolphins chase points, the Vikings can create the separation this spread requires.

Additional recorded tickets

Colts -3.5 and Lions–Panthers over 48.5 are primary bets at $15 each. Najee Harris first touchdown scorer is a $10 bonus-bet prop with no cash stake. Parlays and round robins are tracked separately.