NFL / WEEK 2 / BETTING RECAP
NFL Week 2 Betting Recap: What We Got Right and What We Got Wrong
The point of tracking every bet is not just to count wins and losses. It is to be honest about why each one happened and carry the right lessons into next week.
The Colts +6.5 ticket is still pending. This recap covers the completed Sunday bets and the reads that will matter going forward.
Game-by-game review
Titans +7 — Win (Eagles 24, Titans 20)
This was a perfect bounce-back spot after Tennessee looked awful in Week 1. Philadelphia found a way to win, but that is how the Eagles tend to win: ugly, close games rather than blowouts. Seven was too many.
Bears -5.5 — Loss (Vikings 9, Bears 3)
Chicago had chances, including a goal-line fumble and Caleb Williams getting hurt near a possible scoring play. The important miss was not weighing the bad weather heavily enough against a strong Vikings defense. In that setup, taking points is usually the better side.
Chargers -6.5 — Loss (Raiders 26, Chargers 14)
The Chargers never had a chance. We cannot assume a team will bounce back just because it played poorly the week before; sometimes that is simply the team. Los Angeles had no business laying 6.5 to almost anyone.
Texans -2.5 — Loss (Bengals 20, Texans 6)
Houston left points on the field through repeated blown scoring opportunities, but the larger issue was that its offense looked as bad as people feared coming into the season. Cincinnati was uneven offensively, but its defense looked real.
Cardinals +3.5 — Loss (Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7)
This was forcing an underdog angle because it worked the week before, even though we believed in Drew Lock and Seattle's defense. The read conflicted with itself, and Seattle dominated.
Broncos -3 — Win (Broncos 20, Jaguars 13)
This was the right play. Denver started poorly and Bo Nix made mistakes, but the defense made plays, Trevor Lawrence made the type of errors that have hurt him before, and Denver found enough late offense. It looked like the Broncos team we know.
Buccaneers -8.5 — Loss (Browns 23, Buccaneers 19)
We overinflated Tampa Bay and repeated the bad-Week-1-means-bounce-back mistake. The Browns were an ugly dog with much of the same appeal Tennessee had the week before. The Bucs were not good enough to lay 8.5.
Dolphins +13.5 — Loss (49ers 35, Dolphins 13)
We leaned too hard on a San Francisco letdown after Australia and did not believe enough in what the 49ers showed against the Rams. Sometimes Week 1 is signal, not noise. The 49ers are real.
Ravens -8.5 — Loss (Saints 24, Ravens 17)
This did not match the real read on Baltimore. We have not been believers in the Ravens, but laid more than a touchdown anyway and gave New Orleans too little respect. The Ravens were in position to cover, but the ticket was not aligned with the conviction.
Jets +4.5 — Win (Packers 20, Jets 17 OT)
We trusted what we saw. The Jets looked good in Week 1, while Green Bay had not shown enough to be a 4.5-point road favorite. Stop forcing expected comedowns and rebounds: good teams can stay good and bad teams can stay bad.
Steelers–Patriots Under 41.5 — Win (Patriots 20, Steelers 3)
This was the best read of the day. The likely game scripts all pointed under: a close defensive game, or a Patriots win with Pittsburgh struggling to score. It landed exactly in that range.
Falcons +2.5 — Loss (Panthers 34, Falcons 3)
We bet line movement and Cooper Rush rather than the underlying teams. Rush was bad enough to be benched. Atlanta is not a team to buy until it gives a reason, while Carolina deserves more respect.
Cowboys -4.5 and team total over 29.5 — Wins (Cowboys 37, Commanders 20)
One of the strongest reads of the week. Dallas started hot, Washington made a push, and Dallas pulled away—the same kind of game as last year. Jayden Daniels' injury adds uncertainty, but Dallas was the better team and kept scoring. The defense still needs work.