COLLEGE FOOTBALL · OCTOBER 3, 2026
We Bet Too Many Games: College Football Bets and Reactions — October 3, 2026
Bama and Wake were the two we loved most. Even if we have a good record, I still think we bet too many games in this early window.
I think the problem was that we bet too many games. We didn’t love all of these. Bama we loved. Wake Forest we loved. Those were definitely the two we loved most, and they looked very good. A good record doesn’t change that we probably bet too many games.
The bets still going
| Game / bet | Tier | Stake | Ticket odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana vs. RutgersRutgers +24.5 | secondary | $2.00 | -112 | Pending |
| Florida vs. MissouriMissouri +5.5 | primary | $15.00 | -110 | Pending |
| Miami vs. ClemsonClemson +15.5 | secondary | $2.00 | -110 | Pending |
| Kentucky vs. South CarolinaKentucky +2.5 | primary | $15.00 | -108 | Pending |
| Washington vs. USCUSC -6.5 | primary | $15.00 | -111 · boosted | Pending |
Our finished early-window bets
| Game / bet | Tier | Stake | Ticket odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia vs. Iowa StateWest Virginia +3 | primary | $15.00 | -102 | Push |
| Stanford vs. Wake ForestWake Forest -14 | secondary | $2.00 | -115 | Win |
| Boston College vs. SMUSMU -21.5 | primary | $15.00 | -105 | Loss |
| Alabama vs. Mississippi StateAlabama -5.5 | primary | $15.00 | -108 | Win |
| Michigan vs. MinnesotaMichigan -6 | primary | $15.00 | -110 | Loss |
| Notre Dame vs. North CarolinaNorth Carolina +21 | primary | $15.00 | -108 | Win |
| Alabama vs. Mississippi StateAlabama -2.5 | primary | $20.00 | -123 · boosted | Win |
Alabama–Mississippi State
I don’t think anything changed my view of this game. Alabama was just the better team. Mississippi State is good, and I still think they can be a sleeper, especially next week. I don’t know who they’re playing or what the spread is, but my guess is they’ll be viewed differently now.
Alabama gave them every chance to make a comeback after Mississippi State’s early struggles. It was close at half, just a few plays here or there. Then Alabama started clicking, and it was game.
Wake Forest–Stanford
I stopped watching around halftime because it was such a blowout. To me, it’s another sign that Wake Forest is going to be a team we’re all over in some of those bigger ACC games. They’re rolling on both sides of the football. They just make so many plays.
Stanford, every time I see them, they’re not a very good team.
Notre Dame–North Carolina
This is a really great sign for UNC and doesn’t really change anything for Notre Dame. The fact that Notre Dame hung on to win is all that mattered.
For UNC, they got down and still hung around. A few plays go differently and they’re in this. The fact that they were able to move the ball or do much of anything was huge. In some of those bigger games, if they’re being underappreciated, UNC is a team I want to look at.
Michigan–Minnesota
Earlier, I felt like Michigan was taking control. It had been close, which was the game we expected, and I felt like that big play completely changed the momentum. I viewed that as a positive sign.
But Michigan can look horrid. Could they upset somebody big at some point? Of course. The defense makes plays, and I think their quarterback is good when he has time. You just can’t trust them.
When they’re laying a number like they were here, this was the wrong read. Completely wrong. Minnesota should have been the play, or maybe the under. I don’t even know if the under would have hit. But a muffed punt changed this, too. Who knows how differently we’d be thinking if they don’t muff that punt.
Boston College–SMU
At halftime, I thought it was an ugly game. SMU looks good, then looks bad. Boston College always seems to keep these games close and ugly. I felt like I fell into that trap again: I’m not impressed watching BC, but they keep it close.
I watched on and off. Boston College loses, but SMU makes stupid mistakes and does dumb stuff. Just the most SMU game ever. Finding a way to win is important, but we probably should stay away from betting a lot of these games. Next time SMU plays a really, really good team, maybe that’s a fade spot.
West Virginia–Iowa State
I had this one on the side. I think it was a fine read, but I probably should have avoided betting it. It was almost too close, and in my opinion there wasn’t value on either side. Maybe the over.
This is what West Virginia does: fall behind, come back, then lose tight or win tight. We also need to watch Iowa State more. We’re going to get chances to bet with them, and we’ve only been betting against them. That doesn’t mean we won’t bet against them again, but there will be spots to back them. In this spot, we pushed anyway. It should have been an avoid game.